There's a 100% chance you're an idiot.

Maybe it’s because I was raised by a physicist and a mathematician, but it makes my skin crawl when a weatherman predicts a "100% chance of rain."

A 100% chance is not a chance…it’s a certainty. There is never a certainty that anything is going to happen unless it is already happening. A nearby star could go supernova and emit a gamma radiation burst that strips away the atmosphere, a comet could vaporize the Gulf of Mexico, Jesus could come back, or a butterfly could fan its wings on an Amazonian tree branch…not necessarily in that order.

I guess meteorologists are so often wrong that when they’re almost sure they want to make it look like they’re completely sure. But statisticians they are not.

Comments

[Momotaro]

Can I chime in the the little none factoid that 83% of all statistics are made up? :-)

[Sonya]

You are really funny. Yet what you say is 100% true.

[Sonya]

By the way your information about the difference between locust and cicadas was very useful. I just won 40$ on a bet.